Swarm intelligence using online software can improve citizens’ ability to survive attacks

KYIV, UKRAINE, December 23, 2022 /24-7PressRelease/ — The Save Ukraine Network, in cooperation with experts from Taras Shevchenko National University and Lviv Polytechnic National University, is assisting citizen scientists in building an online prediction engine that can help Ukrainian and Moldovan citizens avoid and recover from current Russian missile and drone attacks. “We are using available forecasting software and the power of swarm intelligence to allow civilians to make better informed choices about where to go when attacks are likely,” says SUN co-founder John Toomey.

For months, group members have been listening to Russian soldiers talking to each other on unencrypted radios through various websites, like https://9gag.com/gag/ang7R15. When they can pinpoint where particular Russian troops are located, they can monitor their movements using the map provided by the Centre for Information Resilience, at eyesonrussia.org.

Recently conversations have been monitored which involve Iranian advisors discussing best practices for using Iranian drones, including the Shahed 131 and Shahed 136, as well as Iranian-supplied missiles like the Geran-2, Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar ballistic missiles. “It’s apparent from these communications that cooperation between Russia and Iran is increasing, as both are pariah nations who have valuable aid to offer each other” says Save Ukraine’s Svetlana Shevchenko. “According to sources who have been reliable in the past, more than one Iranian consultant has claimed that Iran’s regular army, as well as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are monitoring results of the attacks closely, seeing them as a ‘dry run’ or dress rehearsal for attacks on Iran’s putative foes, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia.”

Save Ukraine Network members are using Metaculus, an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine which works to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. In bringing together an international community and keeping score for thousands of forecasters, Metaculus is able to deliver machine learning-optimized aggregate predictions that both help partners make decisions and benefit the broader public. The more Ukrainians and others participate, the more accurate the predictions will be.

“Both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries make extensive use of machine learning to predict the movements and performance of opposing forces,” says Save Ukraine’s Soani Gunawan. “But there is no equivalent capability for civilians, such as those who live near an electrical power plant likely to be attacked by both Russian and Iranian missiles and drones (And based on present evidence, the percentage of such plants the Russians will attack is close to 100%).” This is the challenge the new effort endeavors to address.

In addition to Metaculus, plans are to use unanimous.ai, another platform that optimizes the power of swarm intelligence to derive answers to important questions.

For more information contact [email protected]. To help Ukranian citizens and refugees go to https://help.rescue.org/donate/ukraine

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